I was reading an appraisal this morning for some clients who are purchasing a home in Truckee, and the appraiser referred to some stats about distress sales, and the fact that they appear to be declining in our market. That got me wondering about the “real” numbers, so I did a few calculations for homes in Tahoe Donner. These are just stats for homes in Tahoe Donner, not condos. Distressed sales are short sales, or REO (bank owned).
There are currently 128 homes for sale. 39 of which are under contract right now (30% in escrow) That is a very strong number.
Of the 89 homes not currently under contract, 6 are short sales and 3 are REO (10% distressed offerings) A decline from the large percentage in escrow.
Of the 39 homes under contract, 8 are short sales, and 3 are REO. (28% distress sale) Much of the distressed inventory was recently snatched up.
194 homes have sold in Tahoe Donner as of 11/30/2010. 18 were short sales (9%) and 12 were REO (6%) a total of 15% distressed sales.
In 2009 there were 227 homes sold in Tahoe Donner, and 17% were distressed sales. All but 5 of the homes with pending sales would have to close escrow in December to equal last years total sold number, and that is not likely to happen, but the percentage of decline in sales from last year will be marginal. There were 193 sales in 2008.
To summarize, nearly 1/3 of the homes currently for sale are in escrow, and just under 1/3 of those are short sales or REO’s. About 15% of the homes sold in Tahoe Donner this year were distressed sales. Down slightly from 17% last year. In the first 1/2 of 2010, roughly 27% of home sales nationwide were REO sales as reported by RealtyTrac. Some markets like Las Vegas were more like 60%. The Tahoe Donner market is faring much better with around 6% REO sales in 2010, so less than 1/4 of the national average. With 9% of the sold market being short sales, it’s clear that home prices have declined considerably from 2006. That said, declining numbers of distressed sales likely equates to declining pressure on pricing.
The bottom might be close.
Encouraging numbers indeed!
In the last 100 days for Tahoe Donner
18 Notices of Default were filed on Tahoe Donner Houses
13 Houses went back to the lender
15 Notice of Sale were filed
2 Homes were sold to a 3rd party at the Trustee Sale Auction
Bill, thanks for the thoughtful feedback here. I appreciate you taking the time to respond. I think that the data that you’ve derived here is indicative of what’s still going on out there. I personally know of homes and instances where folks have not made a house payment in over two years, and the banks have not foreclosed. The data that I used was derived from the MLS, so it’s inventory that ultimately made it to the market. You could assume that the situations you outline will eventually make it to the market, but when? Here is a link to an interesting article from a short time ago, that talks about the huge amounts of inventory that are out there in the big metro areas that has not made it to market yet, and may not for a while. It’s an 800 pound gorilla in the closet for certain. Thanks again.
Interesting article. FYI, for Truckee, including TD, 46 homes went back to the lender in the last 100 days. I guess in a second home market, it’s tough to tell whats vacant and whats not but squatting or acquring property under the intent of adverse possession has to be considered in these times. A ski bums dream come true.